Редактирование: Участник:Aqui/Песочница
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|At this time we all wondered, like other scientists on first acquaintance with the Mars Effect, if there was a possible "natural" (nonoccult) explanation. As seen from Earth, Mars appears near the sun more often than not. And birth rates are higher at dawn, when the sun enters Sector 1, so one would expect all births (not just sports champions') to be slightly more frequent when Mars is in Sector 1. For convenience I will call this astronomical/demographical intrusion (or "influence") the "Mars/dawn" factor. We will return to this since the Keystone CSICOPs' inability to compute this factor (until years after it was too late) was to prove their undoing. | |At this time we all wondered, like other scientists on first acquaintance with the Mars Effect, if there was a possible "natural" (nonoccult) explanation. As seen from Earth, Mars appears near the sun more often than not. And birth rates are higher at dawn, when the sun enters Sector 1, so one would expect all births (not just sports champions') to be slightly more frequent when Mars is in Sector 1. For convenience I will call this astronomical/demographical intrusion (or "influence") the "Mars/dawn" factor. We will return to this since the Keystone CSICOPs' inability to compute this factor (until years after it was too late) was to prove their undoing. | ||
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|My manuscript (which gently corrected the "Objections"-affiliated false attack on Gauquelin) was not published in January-February ''Humanist'' on the grounds that it had arrived too late for the deadline -- although it had been written in less than two weeks. Instead Kurtz published two other papers in that ''Humanist'' issue: one by Abell, on astrology in general and Gauquelin in particular, which based its discussion of the gravitational effects of Mars on us upon a common popular-science misconception, causing an error by a factor of a few million. The other, by Zelen, was "A Challenge" to Gauquelin. | |My manuscript (which gently corrected the "Objections"-affiliated false attack on Gauquelin) was not published in January-February ''Humanist'' on the grounds that it had arrived too late for the deadline -- although it had been written in less than two weeks. Instead Kurtz published two other papers in that ''Humanist'' issue: one by Abell, on astrology in general and Gauquelin in particular, which based its discussion of the gravitational effects of Mars on us upon a common popular-science misconception, causing an error by a factor of a few million. The other, by Zelen, was "A Challenge" to Gauquelin. | ||
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|The Challenge was a classic ''control'' experiment: isolate the sports ability variable by comparing the Mars horoscopic positions of the champions Gauquelin had already collected vs. the Mars horoscopic positions of all other persons (''non''sports champions), the "control" group, born about the same time and place as the champions. If the control group exhibits the same hit-rate (a "hit": being born when Mars resides in celestial Sector 1 or 4) as the champions, 22 percent, then clearly sports ability has nothing to do with the Mars Effect, which is thus revealed as merely a by-product of purely natural influences. This is what the top CSICOPs expected to happen. | |The Challenge was a classic ''control'' experiment: isolate the sports ability variable by comparing the Mars horoscopic positions of the champions Gauquelin had already collected vs. the Mars horoscopic positions of all other persons (''non''sports champions), the "control" group, born about the same time and place as the champions. If the control group exhibits the same hit-rate (a "hit": being born when Mars resides in celestial Sector 1 or 4) as the champions, 22 percent, then clearly sports ability has nothing to do with the Mars Effect, which is thus revealed as merely a by-product of purely natural influences. This is what the top CSICOPs expected to happen. | ||
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|If the nonchampions' hit-rate turns out to be what Gauquelin had said is correct for ordinary people, namely 17 percent, then the control experiment has come out in Gauquelin's favor, since sports ability is isolated as the link to the five-percent difference. | |If the nonchampions' hit-rate turns out to be what Gauquelin had said is correct for ordinary people, namely 17 percent, then the control experiment has come out in Gauquelin's favor, since sports ability is isolated as the link to the five-percent difference. |